By Charlie C

The Yemen Conflict. The Yemen Civil war which officially began in September 2014, it is a complicate conflict that holds significant complications for the future of Yemen but more broadly the Middle East as a whole. The war originated in Yemen’s capital city Sanaa when Hoothi rebels took control of the capital. Leading to the expulsion of the President, Abdrabbuh Masur Hadi. This rapidly caught the attention of international powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, converting Yemen into a battleground for their own interests. When the 2015 Saudi coalition intervened to restore the Hadi government, this marked the beginning of a military campaign by Saudi which has been indirectly tampered with by Iran which is widely regarded as part of the continuing proxy war between the two Arab nations.

Geopolitical Impact and regional instability

The war in Yemen serves as a mirror image of the larger Saudi-Iranian ‘conflict’, with both nations looking to expand its influence within the Middle East it was a perfect opportunity to do so. From the perspective of the Saudi Arabian government the Houthi-managed Yemen posed a direct threat to its national security as it would be sharing its southernmost border with Iranian supported Houthis’s this would only further extend Iran’s power even closer to the borders of Saudi Arabia. Iran, on the contrary, support the Houthi’s strive for power over Yemen as part of a tactic to challenge the Saudi monopoly in the south-east corner of the Middle East and as a way to aggravate and irritate the general location around them. The ongoing conflict has magnified the regional instability, with the potential for ‘spill over’ effect on other Arab nations, which Iran would hope to exploit. For example, the Institute for National Security Studies highlights that the conflict has potential to disrupt Naval security in the Bab el-Maneb Straight, through which approximately 10% of all global trade passes through. This would clearly have detrimental economic effects on not just Saudi but the Middle East and the world as a whole as just over 20% of all oil and gas trade in the first half of 2023 came through the major channel and is a massive factor in the control of almost all shipping between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea by the way of the Suez Canal.

 Humanitarian Crisis

 The humanitarian implications of the Yemen Civil War are astounding. As of October 2024, over 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, just over 80% of the population. The war has resulted in a severe insecurity of food resources, with approximately 17 million people facing food shortages and just over 1.3 million children suffering from potentially lethal levels of malnutrition. The blockade that continues since January 3rd this year and the persistence of the Saudi coalition for the destruction of infrastructure have subsequently caused a severe rise in dangerous disease like cholera, with a suspected 4.5 million cases reported since the first out break 1 year after the beginning of the war. This humanitarian crisis not only affects the Yemenite population but also places an intense burden on international humanitarian organisations such as UNICEF and The ICRC the latter of which have been helping Yemeni citizens with humanitarian aid since 1962. Both charities provide clean water, health care and other relief. Future Implications The future of Yemen and the surrounding region depends on if or how the war is resolved. If the conflict continues at the rat in-which it currently is without a self-sustaining peace treaty/agreement, Yemen may continue as a war-torn nation for years to come, serving as a nursery for extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS. The USA State Department has also flagged that AQAP has continued and will continue to exploit the chaos to strengthen its foot hold in the Middle East and the entire world. Utilising venerable men and women for their own personal. This further poses a threat to Yemeni and global security. Moreover, the persistent instability in the area is disrupting crucial shipping routes, particularly the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Such disruption could have a damming and far-reaching consequences for Middle Easter and global economies. Furthermore, a negotiated peace could stabilise Yemen and the subsequent surrounding area and alleviate tensions in the Gulf. This resolution will be almost impossible individually through Yemen, and would likely require an international mediator and a continuing commitment from regional powers to stop hostilities and start dialogues. If these talks are fortuitous, they could facilitate humanitarian aid delivery and create a path for rebuilding the country, which has suffered extensive damage to its infrastructure by the hand of the Saudi’s.

 Summary

 In summary, the Yemeni civil war is not only an internal conflict involving surrounding countries. But it also represents a major geopolitical battle with global ramifications. The ongoing war creates pressure to increase instability in the region. Expanding the humanitarian crisis and enable and empower emerging extremist groups. As such, the resolution of this conflict is not just a matter of national interest for Yemen, but in the interest of the whole global to maintain security and stability in the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts will be essential in securing peace, which has been displayed by the EU having contributed 1.5 Billion Euros to the cause. Without these efforts of, Yemen risks remaining a discontinuing and war-torn state, caught in the cross fire of geopolitical rivalries.